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Why does everyone think that Vietnam or Indonesia will be the brightest country in Southeast Asia in the future, and why not the Philippines?
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That’s a plausible consequence and thoroughly valid if you are referring to the current data of poverty rate, GDP Per Capita, size of economy, debt to gdp percentage, also Foreign Direct Investments and some of available economy predictions. Indonesia and Vietnam are doing better than Philippines in those economy indicators, now people here might argue that Indonesia definitely have all the upper hands since Indonesia is the most populous and largest by territory in the whole SE Asia, but size alone doesn’t guarantee the almighty of economy, remember Philippines is the second most populous country in the whole ASEAN but its size of economy is not even bigger than Thailand (let alone per capita income) Thailand is known as the manufacturer might in ASEAN along with Indonesia, both countries are exporting vehicles throughout the region and beyond, Indonesia also diversified its economy with service, tourism, manufacturing and exporting raw materials worldwide. Indonesia is producing oil and the most important player in palm oil industry, while Philippines only relies heavily on OFW/migrant workers' remittances. Vietnam have the strong culture of entrepreneurship if you have visited Hanoi or HCM, you see they have so many tall home-shop buildings scattered around the cities, Vietnam also recorded magnificent economy growths in the past years and impressed many investors, the political climate in Vietnam is also better than Philippines, Thailand, or Indonesia. As the lone member of G20 in SE Asia, Indonesia also booked impressive progress with investing heavily on infrastructure under the current administration, the country also served as home based of many local born-international brands which are already familiar in this region like Indomie, Mayora which produces Kopiko the coffee-candy that’s famous in Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, J.Co Coffee and Donuts which has outlets throughout region like Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Manila and of course various Indonesian cities, Delfi and its subsidiary companies and some more. Currently Indonesian cities are well connected better than ever while rhetorically it’s easier to manage smaller country but it’s not the case with Philippines for instance, the infrastructure is lagging behind its neighbors, there is a railway link that’s connecting Jakarta in the west part of Java to Surabaya in the east Java as well as southern lane Bandung in West Java to Malang in eastern part of Java, but you definitely can't find a railway link that connected Ilocos Norte to Sorgoson in Luzon, Philippines, the both islands : Java and Luzon are densely populated in two countries. While urban development in Philippines is only focused in Metro Manila (even so, not everywhere is proportionately developed) the Indonesian goverment is playing catching up with SE Asian neigbors by opening more airports and seaports to welcome tourists and investors ( Indonesia is the second biggest recipient of FDI after Singapore in SE Asia) as well as building highways that connected the remoted areas in Papua, Borneo and Sumatra. The second biggest city in Philippines, Cebu is not even bigger than Bandung, West Java and the other big city like Davao is only par with third tier city like Surakarta in Central Java. The Philippine economy is driven by consumerism, 10% Pinoys work abroad since they can’t find employment in their native country and 21.5% population live under poverty line while Filipino Quorans here loved to mention malls I might say that malls in Philippines might be big alright, but they are not as glittering as Indonesian malls in Central and South Jakarta or Surabaya, Philippine malls seemed to be big but very plain in tenancy, the prominent top shops are only Zara and Pull & Bear while the high end brands and outlets are rare if you compare to the big malls in Jakarta or Surabaya. Even if Philippine malls seemed to be big (mostly that’s not the case if you compare with those in Jakarta) they can’t attract foreign buyers, they only rely on local shoppers as Philippines is not top tourist destination in SE Asia in the very first place, in tourism industry alone Philippines struggling with foreign arrivals, sane and experienced foreign tourists are very cautious with their safety in Philippines, the current leadership that’s anti-foreigner and dangerous impression from disturbing news that German Senior citizen and Vietnamese fishermen being butchered to death while supposedly well trained soldiers being regularly ambushed by Filipino local militias, unlike Indonesia with much more stable tourism industry and in the malls, which it’s not uncommon to see expats flocking the high end malls in Jakarta, Bandung, Bali and Surabaya. IKEA plans to open its second store in Indonesia while they don’t even have any consideration to open one in Philippines but it’s pretty much logical since Indonesia got more middle and upper class folks, and mind you the Philippines only got three main cities : Metro Manila, Cebu dan Davao whereas Indonesia got plenty from west to east, surely more money to spend as Indonesia got much higher parity power/ per capita income, diverse products and consumers proven by its home-driven size of economy (biggest GDP in the entire region). But overall Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines are all predicted to do well in the future hopefully can play catch up with already regional powerhouse like Singapore.
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I think because the Indonesia’s economy are going great for past decade, they are the first and the only economy in the region reach 1 $trillion GDP, the FDI flow into Indonesia are huge, $35 billion in 2017 and always around $30 in previous years. Even thought in full-year 2017 the Indonesia economy expanded are only 5.07 percent, it not bad compare to some European countries are stuck in debts or others under-development countries have higer rates but lower value. About Vietnam, i not sure why some people are high regard our country economy, even thought some indexes and reports from the Vietnam gov and officers and international sources are showing positive, i doubt Vietnam can play a role in industrial, compare to the Thailand on the automotive and motorcycle industry. The Vietnam export & import field are huge depend on FDI enterprises, the local privateer enterprises are not easy for business, they suffer huge taxes, social insurance, they are hard to reach equity and technology and should’t forget the corruption. Photo: ASEAN Skyline Facebook Fanpage